Last month, IRENA quietly dropped a report on critical materials in the battery supply chain—yet I saw barely a blip about it on LinkedIn. Let’s give it the spotlight it deserves, with a few key takeaways from the report.
But first, a little context: IRENA’s calculations are based on their own 1.5°C scenario, which means that by 2030, they predict the global EV fleet will jump from 44 million vehicles today to 359 million, requiring a 5x increase in EV battery production.
Here’s what you need to know:
1️⃣ Long-Term Material Supply Looks Stable
There are enough known deposits to meet future demand. Yes, we’ll be racing to keep up with production, but shortages? Not in the long run.
2️⃣ LFP to the Rescue
The rise of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) chemistries is set to take some pressure off demand for high-cost materials like nickel and cobalt. A win for both cost and sustainability.
3️⃣ Lithium Demand Holds Steady
LFP may reduce nickel and cobalt demand, but lithium demand stays strong. Sodium-ion may start impacting lithium later, but not until the next decade.
4️⃣ Short-Term Risk: Lithium Supply
For now, lithium remains the trickiest bottleneck. Production must keep pace to avoid delays or cost hikes in the supply chain.
So, here’s to correcting the record—this IRENA report is a must-read for anyone eyeing the battery landscape.
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