I first saw a flying car while watching Blade Runner, in the early 90s. Five years passed since 2019 - the year in which the events of the movie take place, but only last year we got ourselves the first certified flying car. And that was in China, not in LA.
All the technologies necessary to make a flying car are available today. The key one is the high-density lithium-ion batteries. These became light and cheap enough thanks to the progress made in making electric cars. Cells with Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt cathode (NMC) seem to be the preferred type for these cars, as it currently packs more energy per kg of weight
The growth in the drone market also helped to develop the necessary technologies, for controlling flight. The emergence of AI paves the way for making flying cars autonomous from the start.
Two things hold back the development of the personal flight market. The first is regulations. Western regulators have been slow in allowing cars to fly over cities. Chinese regulators came a little faster. This year should see other places like Israel and France have their first flying cars. In Israel, AIR One is expected to start shipping first commercial orders and Volocopter is expected to launch its flying taxi service in Paris. Still, any new vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) vehicle will take years to test and certify.
The electric aircraft market is around $8B now and is projected to grow to about $35B by 2030. This includes drones, which are by far the most visible representation of electric aviation today. The growth could become exponential closer to the end of this decade, as more electric VTOL aircraft get certified and take to the skies. But there is a second problem, to be overcome.
The problem is why. Why do we need a flying car? Zipping above the traffic jams seems cool until you factor in the cost. Current models are priced over $300K, making them unaffordable for all but the super-rich, corporations or governments. If the price of EVs is any guide, then it would take 15-20 years for the prices of flying cars to reach the prices of EV today. As more flying cars fill the skies above the cities, AI air traffic regulation is likely to happen, queuing all the flying cars in the multi-story air traffic jams.
Getting to work 20 min earlier is not the problem I’d want to solve with a flying car. I rarely travel to the office now, and public transport is getting better all the time. From the climate perspective, flying cars will not contribute to any meaningful CO2 reduction. All air travel today contributes just over 2% of global CO2 equivalent emissions, and most of it is from long-haul flights.
VTOLs could be taken up first by city services like police, ambulances, and firefighters. Big cities could afford them. Ambulances have a hard time pushing through city traffic, and for these kinds of life-or-death situations, flying cars can make a real difference. But as budgets and procurement procedures go, this will take a couple of years.
With this in mind, I see flying cars as a luxury market. It doesn’t solve global climate or other global issues. They definitely will not save the world. But they may save lives.