When planning your FOAK (First-of-a-Kind) project, it’s tempting to start small—minimizing CAPEX, raising less money, and avoiding too much dilution. But here’s the catch: your FOAK should also serve as a blueprint for future Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) facilities. Ideally, you’d want to “copy-paste” it without changes.
Let’s take a look at Northvolt—once the North Star of European cleantech, now a cautionary tale. Their scientists developed battery chemistry in the lab and scaled it straight to a 16 GWh FOAK facility, capable of supplying 300,000 EVs annually. Their scale-up was more like a leap of faith than a cautious step.
So, scaling too fast can be fatal. How do you get it right? Based on investor insights and my own experience, the best approach follows a 3-step framework, as described by Mario Fernandez of Breakthrough Energy Catalyst:
1️⃣ Pilot Stage: 1x the scale of your lab. Prove the technology works beyond the bench.
2️⃣ Demo Stage: 5-20x of your pilot. Iron out the process and get market feedback.
3️⃣ FOAK Stage: 10x of your demo. Now you're ready for prime time.
This phased approach ensures you don’t jump into an unmanageable scale too soon, avoiding costly failures and building investor confidence along the way.
💡 Scaling up is an art. Do it too slowly, and you’ll lose market opportunities. Do it too fast, and you’ll burn through cash and credibility.
Are you planning your FOAK? Let’s talk. I’d love to share insights and help you avoid the pitfalls.